This is how the political matrix runs in Pakistan. The dissenting crowds, the nervous and exhausted opposition, the politically activated mobs, frenzied slogans, loud claims, blazing arguments, jammed roads, the charged containers with loud speakers… O yes… this is all what we crave for in the Pakistani politics when we hear the term “Elections” and “Election campaigning”. But this time, the chanting slogans are not coming from the largest metropolitan cities of Pakistan but from the highest mountains of the world, from the Northern Pakistan, called as Gilgit Baltistan. Yes, the similar Gilgit Baltistan which pulled down the Dogra Flag without any external aid and voluntarily raised Pakistani Flag on November 1, 1947.
The world’s watchfulness from DC has turned towards GB now as Gilgit Baltistan will go to the polls on November 15. So what will be the Post elections impact? How will be the Provincial Status practically possible? Will the Provisional Provincial Status impact Pakistan’s Case on Kashmir? Why’s there an Indian Panic and why an obnoxious Indian Media Campaign? The pundits of the political world contend that the GB elections 2020 will pave the way for the future politics of GB and the national discourse. Democracy will be strengthened. Post, the announcement by PM Imran Khan, Pakistan is all set to hoist the status of Gilgit Baltistan to a “Provisional” province.
Provisional Provincial Status
If GB becomes the 5th Province of Pakistan, after the certain legislative amendments it will be a reward for the patience and loyalty of the people of Gilgit Baltistan, who willingly acceded to Pakistan without any external aid. Elevating GB as a constitutional province will incite the economic development of the area. International investments will begin to pour in. The strategic significance of the area will be utilized effectively. Tourism industry will be promoted, Minerals industry will evolve, jobs will be created especially after the CPEC and Diamir Bhasha Dam factor. So, provisional provincial status is a win – win situation for the people of GB as per their aspirations. But the question that arises is about the “Shape” of provisional province which will definitely be visible in times to come.
GB’s Provincial Status and Pakistan’s case on Kashmir
It was assumed and propagated that GB’s provincial status will harm Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir in United Nations. The actual case is completely opposite. The strategic move by Pakistan will in fact strengthen Pakistan’s case in United Nations. The stance will give constitutional protection to the clause which refers to “Material Change” in United Nations Security Council. The clause restricts both India and Pakistan from demographic and cultural change. While India after its 5th Aug 2019’s power move, revoked the special status of Kashmir and challenged “Material Change” clause, Pakistan’s elevation of GB as a province will provide prestige to the clause because there won’t be any change in material i.e culture and demography and locals will be provided their constitutional rights.
Indian Factor
Why is this Indian panic all about? What options India has? Why this Indian flame? Practically speaking, India cannot afford a kinetic fight with Pakistan, firstly because of their own dubious military capability, secondly because of the awareness of an effective response by Armed Forces of Pakistan (as they received on 27 Feb 2019) and thirdly India cannot afford wars at two fronts Pakistan and China; because they very well know that war at two fronts will completely destroy India’s presence in the region. The only options left which they use against Pakistan is targeting innocent civilians on LOC which is responded effectively each time and 5th generation/ hybrid warfare through a hostile and obnoxious Indian media. Indian media terms Gilgit Baltistan as Pakistan’s illegal occupation which is completely false and a fabricated narrative. India has itself “Illegally Occupied” Kashmir and is conducting gross human right violations there. On the contrary, people of GB willingly acceded to Pakistan and have always shed their blood for the defense of their country. Lalak Jaan Shaheed is the proud son of GB’s soil. Narendra Modi’s inhumane step of 5th Aug 2019 carried an unpopular sentiment from public whereas Pakistan’s decision of providing constitutional cover to GB carries an extremely popular public sentiment inside GB.
Post an important election, the world witnessed in DC, now all eyes are towards another geo politically significant location GB, which will go to the polls on November 15. To camouflage the political hollowness of some parties among public, some elements are trying to sell the narrative of Pre poll rigging. The enemy and its proxies want to sabotage elections in GB. Let’s see what happens next. GB will be under discussion for the next few weeks as the political temperature of Gilgit Baltistan is boiling in the coldest weather condition and public expectations are rising with every passing day. If “provisional provincial status” achieved, it will enhance the economic and strategic needs of Pakistan and is a win-win situation for all.
